The Northern Territory has an opportunity that could shape its economy for decades. The Beetaloo Basin is about more than producing gas. Developed successfully, it could attract investment, create jobs and new industries, and strengthen Australia’s energy security and industrial capability in the north. That same capability would support the Australian Defence Force and our allies in a more contested Indo-Pacific.
But opportunities of this scale need planning, infrastructure and timely decisions.
The Darwin Major Business Group (DMBG), which I chair and which represents large business in the Northern Territory, approaches Beetaloo from an economic development perspective. Our interest is in what development at scale could mean for the territory, what infrastructure and policy settings that development would require and how the benefits could spread across our economy. That is why our members funded the independent Beetaloo Development Outlook, launched in Darwin today. The outlook models how large-scale gas development could unfold in the Northern Territory.
Gas began flowing from Beetaloo into the Darwin network in September, passing an important milestone after years of exploration and investment. But first gas is only the beginning. The DMBG’s outlook examines a scenario in which production reaches around three billion cubic feet a day by 2035, sustained through to 2050. It involves approximately 1,800 wells and could support 10,500 territory jobs, including ones created indirectly in other businesses. These are modelled possibilities, not forecasts. Well performance, customers, finance and approvals will determine the pace.
For DMBG, the question is how to turn that potential into lasting economic activity, stronger businesses and opportunities for Territorians. Competitively priced gas could support manufacturing, minerals processing and other energy-intensive industries. The outlook identifies possibilities including cement blending, the finishing process for pipeline tubes, to line gas wells. Alongside developments such as Arafura’s Nolans rare earths project, these activities could broaden the Northern Territory’s industrial base.
ASPI’s John Coyne has argued that Beetaloo gas could help power Australian AI and computing capacity. The outlook also identifies data centres as a potential source of demand, subject to commercial investment and infrastructure. This is another way northern Australia could contribute to national resilience.
International markets matter too. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan depend heavily on imported energy. The outlook identifies potential demand for additional Australian gas from the early 2030s, with Darwin well placed to serve North Asian markets. Companies including Santos, Tamboran Resources, Formentera Partners, Daly Waters Energy, Beetaloo Energy Australia, INPEX, Liberty Energy and Helmerich & Payne are already bringing investment or specialist expertise to the basin. Much of that capital and expertise is American and Japanese, so allied investment is already shaping its development.
From my experience in territory business and workforce operations, I know major projects need more than investment announcements. They need skilled people, accommodation, transport, services and reliable infrastructure. We need to build that capacity early, not scramble to catch up once development is underway. Roads, pipelines, rail connections, water, ports and housing could benefit industries and communities well beyond gas.
Northern Australia already plays an important role in Australia’s defence relationships, including cooperation with the United States and the presence of US Marines in Darwin. A stronger industrial and logistics base could support that role while attracting commercial investment. This is why the federal government has a part to play. Shared infrastructure carries large upfront costs and long lead times, with risks individual investors cannot always bear. The outlook indicates that decisions on major gas transmission infrastructure may be needed in 2027 or early 2028 to support the outlook’s modelling. We are asking the federal government to take a proportionate role in that enabling infrastructure, subject to a sound business case.
DMBG has long advocated for coordinated planning and investment. In our earlier report What the Territory Needs Now, we proposed a Beetaloo Authority to help coordinate infrastructure, land, water and approvals, while respecting Indigenous decision-making and environmental requirements. Northern industrial development is not simply a territory matter; it has national economic and strategic significance.
DMBG brings business leaders together, commissions independent analysis and puts practical ideas forward. Our members invest here, employ Territorians and understand the challenges of operating in the north. We are interested in long-term economic outcomes, not just individual projects.
The Beetaloo Development Outlook gives governments, investors and the community a basis for discussing what needs to happen next. We have seen major opportunities come and go. Potential alone does not guarantee lasting benefits. With the Beetaloo Basin, we have a chance to plan ahead and build local capability. Our task is to make sure the Northern Territory is ready.
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