Fear of being cut out of the negotiating process has worried Kyiv and its European allies about Washington’s overtures to Moscow over the past 18 months – prompting the Oslo meeting between Zelenskyy and Witkoff. But talk of a trilateral summit at APEC will only deepen Ukraine and European apprehensions.
Although Moscow may engage, performatively, in the Witkoff–Jared Kushner-led negotiating process so as not to alienate Trump, there’s no real sign yet that Russia is ready to end the war – except on its own terms.
Russia’s continuing destructive aerial bombing campaign against Ukraine aims to bring Kyiv to its knees, strengthening Moscow’s negotiating position for whenever serious talks to end the fighting take place.
Putin won’t accept any deal that doesn’t meet Moscow’s core objectives: confirming Russia’s control over the whole Donbas (requiring Ukraine to give up sovereign territory it still holds), ensuring a compliant government in Kyiv, and assurances of Ukrainian neutrality.
Zelenskyy has reiterated (Opens in new window) Kyiv’s readiness to freeze the current front lines to achieve a ceasefire. But before agreeing to any meaningful long term peace deal, Ukraine will need rock-solid security guarantees from the US and Europe – and it’s still not clear anything bankable will be forthcoming.
Kyiv is probably sceptical too that an impatient and frustrated US administration, anxious to end the war and already incongruously blaming Ukraine for the lack of progress, can be a genuinely even-handed mediator.
If the US were to throw its weight behind a proposed deal to end the fighting, whatever form it might take, it clearly has leverage it could exert over Ukraine – witness the recent apparent unexplained brief curtailment (Opens in new window) of US intelligence support and denial of Starlink access (Opens in new window) to Ukraine. Washington might also potentially restrict European-funded supplies of US military equipment to Ukraine.
Yet, whatever might emerge from this reinvigorated diplomatic process, Ukraine won’t simply fall meekly into line with a proposed agreement that doesn’t take its interests adequately into account.
For Kyiv the war is an existential struggle to protect and sustain its national sovereignty. Zelenskyy has recently shown his willingness to resist US pressure, resuming attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure.
For Kyiv, continuing European support is crucial. That’s not in doubt currently. But the outlook is more uncertain, with key European centrist governments facing elections next year, under populist pressures from left and right from parties unsympathetic to Ukraine.
Ukraine has shown courage and resilience in resisting Russian depredations for nearly five years. It will need all this, and more, to weather the challenges ahead.
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