ANU observers’ reports (Opens in new window) on PNG’s last four elections show guns becoming more common across the country, a “genuine cause of concern” for future polls. In some areas, polling-day violence and controlled voting have become so normalised that experienced observers expect security incidents – including killings – to occur.
Australia budgeted $20 million (Opens in new window) to support PNG’s 2022 general election, then needed another $10 million just to ensure the vote went ahead. Stakeholders described the effort as “more in line with crisis-response or humanitarian disaster than aid programming”. The Australian Defence Force also deployed more than 130 personnel and aircraft under Operation KIMBA (Opens in new window), helping with logistics and planning, and safely flying election materials around the country.
The election took place, but polling fairness and security varied enormously. At the worst polling stations, security broke down. Ballot boxes were stolen. Convoys were hijacked. Firearms were brandished, and rival factions exchanged gunfire. Police and state security forces were often powerless, reluctant to intervene, or entirely absent. Private security escorted and protected ballot boxes in some places; in others, it helped seize or control them, alongside campaign managers, agents, supporters, strongmen and local power brokers.
PNG votes again in 2027, almost certainly with substantial Australian and international support, giving Australia a direct stake in who secures the vote. Past elections suggest violence will spike, both election-related and opportunistic, as rivals use the polls as cover to settle old scores. This time it may be worse, with more guns and hired gunmen in circulation. Private security will certainly be present. The question is who it will answer to.
Private security firms sit within wider networks of candidates, campaign agents, strongmen and police, and some have political ties of their own. Many are unlicensed. No regulator can capture all of this, but transparency about who contracts whom can expose patronage networks to public scrutiny and shrink the space for bad actors.
Australia should withhold its rifle shipments until armoury security has been independently verified and the results published, as proposed (Opens in new window) by Miranda Forsyth, Sinclair Dinnen and Michael Main, and consider deferring delivery until after the 2027 polls. Before voting begins, it should help PNG’s Security Industries Authority audit Class A licensees and release its register, and work with the Electoral Commission and state security services to disclose which firms will be at polling stations, on convoys and in counting centres. Voters, observers and donors must know who is guarding the ballots – and for whom.
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