Australia’s migration dilemma: short-term pressures, long-term costs

Migration has been a recurring fault line in Australian politics since before Federation. Precisely because the issue is so enduring, Australia should possess the institutional memory to manage it throughcareful planning (Opens in new window), rather than requiring institutions to absorb repeated policy shocks.

Caught in the middle are Australia’s universities.

International education generated $53.6 billion (Opens in new window) in export income in the year to June 2025, making it Australia’s fourth-largest export. Universities also sustain research capacity, educate future leaders and maintain institutional relationships across the Indo-Pacific. They sit where Australia’s migration, economic and foreign policies converge.

Universities cannot adjust their commitments each time the domestic political mood changes. They recruit staff, develop programs, construct facilities and build international partnerships based on decisions made years in advance. Sector leaders have warned that repeated policy changes create aboom-and-bust cycle (Opens in new window), making Australia less predictable and less attractive to global talent.

At the heart of the dilemma is a mismatch of time horizons. Governments can alter visa settings in response to immediate administrative and electoral pressures. Universities build research capacity, reputation and regional relationships over decades. A restriction can be announced within an electoral cycle; the uncertainty it creates may persist much longer.

This is where former prime minister Kevin Rudd’s warning about“the complacent country” (Opens in new window) becomes especially relevant. Complacency is not only a failure to build new strategic capacity. It can also take the form of casually weakening institutions that already sustain it.

Labor MP Tim Watts identified a related problem when warning aboutAustralia’s declining Asia capability (Opens in new window). Australia’s ability to engage its region depends not only on diplomatic statements or defence capabilities, but also on institutions that generate knowledge and maintain relationships across borders.

Universities are not arms of government, yet they form part of the infrastructure through which Australia practises higher education statecraft. Amid growing competition for talent, knowledge and influence in the Indo-Pacific, their regional networks should be deliberately cultivated rather than simply assumed.