Russia: Doubling down in Ukraine – and against the West

Meanwhile, Russia will doubtless affect a continuing interest in US efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting in Ukraine. But, unless such a settlement meets Moscow’s key interests and objectives, its engagement will be essentially performative.

Moscow will aim to keep the Trump administration on side, while driving a wedge between Washington and its European allies. Moscow is reportedly (Opens in new window) offering Washington bilateral commercial advantages, presumably to persuade it to pressure Kyiv into accepting a deal.

But there’s no real sign that Moscow is seriously interested yet in ending the fighting.

Grumbling (Opens in new window) in the Russian elite and wider population about tiring of the war (Opens in new window) is hardly surprising. Economic strains from the burden of war are growing. But in Russia, public opinion can be managed (and if necessary, dissent repressed), while the economic problems are not of an order to constrain Putin’s determination to continue the fighting until the Kremlin’s objectives are achieved.

Nor does Moscow consider itself isolated in the world. In recent weeks, Putin has engaged with its BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation partners, including China and India, while also portraying itself as a leader of the “Global Majority”, contesting (Opens in new window) Western domination of traditional multilateral institutions.

Recent statements by Putin (Opens in new window) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (Opens in new window) indicate that Moscow remains committed to achieving its core objectives – control over all of Donbas, pliant government in Kyiv, and Ukrainian neutrality – such as would draw Ukraine back into Russia’s sphere of influence.

And it’s not just Ukraine.

In his speech (Opens in new window) last week to the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin reiterated that Moscow considered the Ukraine war a proxy conflict, with Kyiv merely a puppet acting at the behest of Western governments intent on undermining Russia.

Reflecting that Russia sees itself pitched in long-term confrontation with the West, Moscow’s 2027 budget projects a 27% rise in defence spending (Opens in new window). The cost will be borne by reduced spending on health and education, and a rising budget deficit.

The Kremlin, then, remains determined to achieve its goals in Ukraine, while pursuing its wider ambition to build Russia’s military capabilities to bolster Russia’s standing and influence in the emerging multipolar world.