Twenty-five years ago, the world’s knowledge of al-Qaeda, Vladimir Putin, China’s military ambitions and cyber capabilities, and the advantages of nuclear submarines resided mainly in the classified domains of our intelligence agencies and defence services.
Trust in Western governments was relatively high in the years after the Cold War and before social media. Today, more information is publicly available than ever, yet we have social division born of distrust in both the public and private sectors. The world is still battling the threat of terrorism along with prolonged state-on-state conflict, the China–Russia ‘no limits’ partnership and seemingly limitless advances in AI.
It has been the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, tomorrow celebrating its 25th anniversary, that has poured sunlight on the threats, analysed security policy and kept the public better informed.
When ASPI was established in August 2001, it was considered necessary to fill a gap in the sources of defence and security advice to the government. Within weeks, the 9/11 terrorist attacks had the United States and Western governments acknowledging a failure of imagination within bureaucratic and political systems. The need for think tanks such as ASPI was reinforced, even if in tragic circumstances. Unfortunately, since then, the world has not found peace but become more dangerous than at any time since the end of World War II.
Twenty-five years is a major milestone for the institute – established by John Howard’s government with the Kim Beazley-led opposition’s support – and for its staff, past and present, who have contributed to its impact over the years. The state of the world in 2026 shows ASPI’s role as Australia’s only defence and security think tank is more important than ever.
ASPI’s charter outlines its three main functions: to provide contestability and alternative advice for government; to inform and nourish the public debate; and to nurture the next generation of talent.
ASPI has not just delivered on all three, but gone above and beyond, including by looking over the horizon to identify emerging threats and trends of national significance.
I am lucky enough to have worked at ASPI for close to seven years. The institute is full of individuals passionate about defence, security, technology, human rights and geopolitics. While comprising diverse individuals, the institute is united by our charter, a curiosity about Australia’s role in the world and a desire to inform the public in the genuine hope that our work can help make Australia more secure.
ASPI is Australia’s oldest think tank, and the world has changed drastically since our establishment. Back in 2001, the world was dealing with one challenge at a time, with terrorism a singular strategic focus. Now, Australia and its partners are dealing with various threats and crises simultaneously. These include wars in Europe and the Middle East, cyberattacks (only increasing in scale with the advent of AI), economic security and supply chain risks, coercion, terrorism, climate change and social division. The list goes on.
For the team at ASPI, this means there is much more work to be done.
I am proud of the way the organisation has evolved and innovated in a changing world. My colleagues have been ahead of the curve in identifying emerging threats and trends, often delivering groundbreaking analysis.
This has included the early identification of the risks of Chinese vendors in 5G networks, which led Australia to be the first country to exclude Huawei from its telecommunications infrastructure. Our team produced some of the first research globally that identified the risks associated with TikTok, including foreign interference.
Importantly, we were among the first to shed light, including through open-source satellite imagery, on human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other minorities in Xinjiang. This led to the introduction of forced labour legislation in the US, a UN report referring to crimes against humanity, and Australia’s introduction of Magnitsky-style sanctions legislation.
Through all these developments, ASPI has never ceased annual publication of its flagship report, The Cost of Defence. While often perceived as a critique on the government of the day, it is in fact the best reporting to lift social awareness of why investment in defence is required to prevent, and be prepared for, war.
Recognising the pace of technological progress in the Indo-Pacific, we established the Sydney Dialogue in 2021. This tech-focused policy summit brings together political and industry leaders, innovators and civil society to build regional and global partnerships and solve the policy problems posed by advanced technologies.
We launched the Darwin Dialogue on critical minerals in 2022 to build a resilient and secure global minerals supply chain, long before others in Australia were focused on this topic.
We launched the Critical Technology Tracker in 2022, examining research effort across 74 critical technologies, including AI and quantum. Spoiler alert: China leads in 69 of those 74 technologies.
And more than 10 years ago, we began the highly regarded Women in Defence and Security Network, which continues to run today.
Most recently, and evolving from the Sydney Dialogue, ASPI this year launched its AI and Security Program. AI is the most transformative technology the world has seen, and as policymakers work to understand, regulate and adopt it, this program will deliver deep research on the security risks and enormous opportunities AI presents.
ASPI will work to ensure increased understanding of why Australia cannot afford to be stuck on the sidelines treating AI and its development as just another race between the US and China but as an issue in which we have an indispensable role.
As we look to the future in a world fighting various fires, ASPI will not sit in the dugout. It will be on the field, as it has been for the past 25 years, playing a leading role in ensuring the government has contestable advice and the public has information it can trust and rely on.
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