Yet the new government faces serious economic pressures and the additional impact of higher energy prices from the conflict in West Asia. A recent report by Transparency International has also found (Opens in new window) that there are clear signs that the BNP is backtracking on its election promises and highlighted growing concerns about media freedom and freedoms of expression.
Hasina’s return, as a direct challenge to Rahman’s authority, could be extremely destabilising for the country.
For India, the timing is particularly awkward. Hasina was widely seen as close to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and her Awami League party maintained close ties with New Delhi, particularly on security cooperation and regional connectivity. Ties between the two countries became acutely strained after her overthrow. The interim government in Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus adopted a more independent foreign policy, and public anti-India sentiment became much more visible.
Since the February election, Delhi has been (Opens in new window) working to improve ties, inviting Rahman to attend the BRICS summit in New Delhi in September. But the latest developments now (Opens in new window) leaves Rahman’s attendance less certain.
Dhaka has repeatedly sought Hasina’s extradition from India. New Delhi has not complied, leaving Hasina’s presence in India as one of the many persistent sources of tension between the neighbours. Her latest address has only made this worse. Rahman was angered (Opens in new window) that the event was allowed to go ahead, while Indian officials said the government was not involved in the private gathering. Protests subsequently broke out across Bangladesh.
While India-Bangladesh ties are resetting, Bangladesh-China ties continue to expand. Rahman chose China for his first major foreign visit (Opens in new window) as prime minister, meeting President Xi Jinping in June to seek Chinese support for infrastructure and economic development. Bangladesh’s embassy in Beijing states that (Opens in new window) “both the countries share identical views on most international and regional issues”.
That makes Hasina’s return more than a domestic political move. It is another test of India’s relationship with a strategically vital neighbour. New Delhi faces a difficult choice. Continuing to shelter Hasina preserves its relationship with a former ally, but risks deepening mistrust with Rahman’s government and pushing Bangladesh closer to Beijing.
The impact on India-Bangladesh relations may therefore depend less on whether Hasina actually returns in December than on what her presence in India represents: the unresolved legacy of Bangladesh’s political transition and Dhaka’s long term concerns about India’s presence in its internal affairs.
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